Thursday, February 21, 2013

Predicting hits in a player's final seasons.


Predicting the number of future hits

A major league player nearing the end of his career needs 200 hits to break a record.  He has promised his wife that he will retire after two more full seasons.  His production is falling but he remains a good hitter and analysts believe that the batting average in his final seasons will range from 280 to 300.  His playing time is falling because he now shares his position with younger players.  He will play in around 50% to 75% of all regular season games.  (There are 162 games in the regular season.)  Analysts believe that he will have approximately 3.1 at bats in each game that he plays.

Do you expect that this player will get the 200 hits needed to break the record?

Come back tomorrow for answer. 

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