Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Career hit comparisons


Question: Pete Rose has 4,256 hits the most of any player ever.   Derek Jeter has 3,304 hits more than any active player.  How many at bats will Derek Jeter need to surpass Pete Rose in total hits if he hits 0.290 over the remaining of his career?   How many hits do you expect Derek Jeter will have at the end of his career?


Analysis of likely hits for Derek Jeter:  Derek Jeter currently has a career batting average of 0.313.  However, hitting performance tapers in the last few years of a player’s career.   A 0.290 batting average for the remainder of his career is a good assumption.

Derek Jeter is currently injured and is not playing and this injury has created uncertainty.  Derek Jeter needs 953 hits to surpass Pete Rose in most hits.   The number of at bats needed to get 953 hits is

AB=(953/0.290)=3286
  

Is it likely that Derek Jeter will remain in MBL long enough to break the record.  He has been in the league for 18 years and is now injured and is not in the lineup.  This is his second injury in the last few years.  I suspect he will stay in the league for three or four more years and may have 500 at bats per year.  At this rate he will have around 580 hits  (0.290 x 2000) and will end up third on the career hit-total list.    This will place him ahead of Hank Aaron but behind Ty Cobb and Pete Rose. 

It would be interesting to compare the hitters on the basis of hits plus base on balls and times hit by a pitch.  I suspect that Hank Aaron is number one on that list and that Derek Jeter will top Pete Rose.  I haven't looked at the numbers yet.  I hope to do so soon and will place post on www.sportquant.blogspot.com when it is available.

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