Monday, December 2, 2013

Odds of a hit or a home run -- Cal Ripken 1996 data

Question:  The table below has information on 1196 regular season batting date for Cal Ripken.  What are: (1) the odds of Cal Ripken getting a hit or not getting a hit on a specific at bat; and (2) the odds of a home run or not getting a home run on a specific at bat?

Data for Cal Ripken 1996 Season
Home Runs
At Bats that Did not end in a hit
At Bats
Batting Average

Definition of odds:  The odds an event will occur is defined as 

P/(1-P) where P is the probability the event will occur and 1-P is the probability that the complement of the event will occur.

Answer to Example 5.2: The odds of a Cal Ripken hit are 0.385 (0.278/(1-0.278)) and the odds of not obtaining a hit are the reciprocal 2.60. Home run odds are 0.043 (0.041/0.959) while odds of not getting a home run are the reciprocal 23.4.
Author's Note:  

This problem first appeared in my book Statistical Applications of Baseball, published in 1996.  It is available at a very low price on kindle.

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