Saturday, February 1, 2014

Manning versus Wilson based on medians and means.

Question:  Often comparisons based on medians differ from comparisons based on means.   We illustrate this difference with QB data from the 2014 season for the two Super Bowl quarterbacks – Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson.

How do the median and mean QB statistics over the 2014 regular season differ for Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson?

What can we learn from the comparison of Manning and Wilson QB statistics? 

How do comparisons based on medians differ from comparison based on means?

Data:  We look at medians and means of 9 QB statistics -- attempts, completion percentage, yards per game, yards per attempt, TDs, Interceptions, Sacks, Sack Yards, and overall QB rating.

The game means and game medians of these statistics are presented below.




Median
Manning
Wilson
Difference Manning- Wilson
Attempts
41.5
26.0
15.5
Completion Percentage
66.4
66.0
0.5
Yards per Game
342.0
208.0
134.0
Yards Per Attempt
8.1
8.1
0.0
TDs
4.0
1.5
2.5
Interceptions
0.0
0.5
-0.5
Sacks
1.0
2.0
-1.0
Sack Yards
4.5
16.5
-12.0
QB Rating
110.5
100.3
10.2
Mean
Manning
Wilson
Difference Manning- Wilson
Attempts
41.2
25.4
15.8
Completion Percentage
69.1
62.6
6.5
Yards per Game
342.3
209.8
132.5
Yards Per Attempt
8.4
8.3
0.1
TDs
3.4
1.6
1.8
Interceptions
0.6
0.6
0.1
Sacks
1.1
2.8
-1.6
Sack Yards
7.5
17.0
-9.5
QB Rating
113.7
100.0
13.6


My observations:

·      Manning threw the ball a lot more than Wilson.

·      Manning and Wilson have quite similar statistics for median completion percentage, yards per attempt, and interceptions.

·      The larger yards per game, total yardage and TDs for Manning was the result of the larger number of passing attempts rather than difference in completion percentage or yards per attempt.   Ditto for TDs.

·      Manning has the higher QB rating for the two quarterbacks.  The major reason for the difference in the QB rating was TDs.   Seattle may be making their TDs on the ground.

·      The difference in the median game QB rating is considerably smaller than the difference in the mean QB rating.

·      Manning has the lower sack percentage and the lower sack yards.  I have not included data on yards rushing, which would presumably be higher for Wilson.


Concluding thoughts:

 The difference in QBs may not be that important in the Super Bowl.   Manning has the higher QB rating because of his TD total, which is in part attributable to the fact that he passes a lot.   This difference is not important if Seattle can punch it in on the ground at the end of a drive.

The difference in the two quarterbacks based on median QB rating is considerably smaller than the difference in mean QB ratings.





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