It is nearing NFL draft day.
Today’s question analyzes the advantage (if any) of getting the first QB
in the draft compared to getting the second QB in the draft.
Questions: The table below contains information on the
number of career touchdown passes made by the first QB selected and the second
QB selected in every NFL draft spanning the 19702002 period. (I did not include QBs chosen after 2002
because a large number of such QBs have not yet completed their careers and I
wanted to focus on QBs that had completed or had almost completed their career.)
What is the average, median, minimum, 25^{th}
percentile, 75^{th} percentile, maximum and the standard deviation of
career touchdown passes for the first QB choice and the second QB choice?
How many firstchoice and secondchoice QBs had very short
careers?
What do these differences suggest about the value of
obtaining the first QB chosen compared to the second QB chosen?
Data:
Touchdowns for First QB
Picked and Second QB Picked


Year

First QB Chosen

# of Touchdowns

Second QB Chosen

# of Touchdowns

2002

David Carr

65

Joey Harrington

79

2001

Michael Vick

128

Drew Brees

363

2000

Chad Pennington

102

Giovanni Carmazzi

0

1999

Tim Couch

64

Donavan McNabb

234

1998

Peyton Manning

491

Ryan Leaf

14

1997

Jim Druckenmiller

1

Jake Plummer

161

1996

Tony Banks

77

Bobby Hoying

11

1995

Steve McNair

174

Kerry C ollins

208

1994

Heath Shuler

15

Trent Dilfer

113

1993

Drew Bledsoe

251

Rick Mirer

50

1992

David Klinger

16

Tommy Maddox

48

1991

Dan McGwire

2

Todd Marinovich

8

1990

Jeff George

154

Andrew Ware

5

1989

Troy Aikman

165

Mike Elkins

0

1988

Chris Chandler

170

Don Mcpherson

0

1987

Vinny Testaverde

275

Kelly Stoufer

7

1986

Jim Everett

203

Chuck Long

19

1985

Randall Cunningham

207

Frank Reich

40

1984

Boomer Essiason

247

Jeff Hostetler

94

1983

John Elway

300

Todd Blackedge

29

1982

Art Schlichter

3

Jim McMahon

100

1981

Rich Campbell

3

Neil Lomax

136

1980

Marc Wilson

86

Mark Malone

60

1979

Jack Thompson

33

Phil Simms

199

1978

Doug Williams

100

Matt Cavanaugh

28

1977

Steve Pisarklewicz

3

Tommy Kramer

159

1976

Richard Todd

124

Mike Kruczek

0

1875

Steve Bartkowski

156

Steve Grogan

182

1974

Danny White

155

David Jaynes

0

1973

Bert Jones

124

Gary Huff

16

1972

Jerry Tagge

3

John Reaves

17

1971

Jim Plunkett

164

Archie Manning

125

1970

Terry Bradshaw

212

Mike Phipps

55

Descriptive Statistics:
Below are descriptive statistics pertaining to the first and
second draft picks for the 33 draft years considered in this post.
First QB
Chosen

Second QB
Chosen


Average

129.5

77.6

Median

124.0

44.0

Min

1.0

0.0

25th Percentile

33.0

11.0

75th Percentile

174.0

125.0

Max

491.0

363.0

STD

109.3

87.2

# of QB S with fewer than
25 career TDs

8

13

Some Quick
Observations:
Mean career TDs thrown and median career TDS thrown are much
higher for the first QB chosen than the second QB chosen.
13 secondchoice QBs had fewer than 25 TD passes compared to
8 firstchoice QBs.
The difference between the mean TD passes and the median TD
passes for the secondchoice QB is larger than the difference for the
firstchoice QB. In other words, career
TDs are positively skewed for secondchoice QBs.
Concluding Thoughts:
Basically, while some secondchoice QBs became great players
and often surpassed the firstchoice QB there were a larger number of
secondchoice QBs with short careers.
Some analysts have argued that many NFL teams tend to
overpay for the right to pick early in the draft. Sometimes the second QB chosen does surpass
the first QB chosen. However, this work
suggests that there is a potentially large advantage in getting the first rather
then second QB.
Additional Work:
This post looks at career TDs for first and second choice
QBs. Many NFL analysts prefer to judge
QBs based on the NFL career rating.
This is a harder task because some QBS with extremely short careers may
have a decent rating. (It would be
misleading to rate a QB with a 75 rating who had one season over a QB with a 65
rating who had 10 seasons.)
This post does not consider whether the observed differences
between firstchoice and secondchoice QB touchdowns are statistically
significant. This very interesting question
will be considered in my next post.
I will soon branch out and analyze differences between firstchoice
and second choice picks at different positions.
Previous posts on QB
issues:
Interested readers may want to look at these two other QB
rating posts.
Manning versus Wilson:
Manning, Roethlisberger, and Rivers:
No comments:
Post a Comment