Monday, August 4, 2014

Change in the first-round prospects for tight ends and wide receivers

Changes in the first-round draft for tight ends and wide receivers

Question: Has there been a significant change in the use of first round draft picks for tight ends and wide receivers between the 1980-1984 and the 2010-2014 time periods?


Data:   Again, the data was tabulated from an NFL.com web site.  



The year-by-year number of first round picks for the two positions and the two time periods are presented below.  Also, included are simple tabulations on the proportion of first round picks placed on the two positions

.
Table One:  First Round Picks for Tight Ends
and Wide Receivers
Tight Ends Picked in First Round
Wide Receivers Picked In First Round
Number of Picks
% Picks that are Tight Ends
% Picks that are Wide Receivers
2010-2014
2014
1
5
32
3.1%
15.6%
2013
1
3
32
3.1%
9.4%
2012
0
4
32
0.0%
12.5%
2011
0
3
32
0.0%
9.4%
2010
1
2
32
3.1%
6.3%
3
17
160
1.9%
10.6%
1980-1984
1984
1
4
28
3.6%
14.3%
1983
1
1
28
3.6%
3.6%
1982
0
4
28
0.0%
14.3%
1981
1
2
28
3.6%
7.1%
1980
1
2
28
3.6%
7.1%
4
13
140
2.9%
9.3%





Analysis: There were three tight ends in the first round in the 2010 to 2014 period compared to 4 tight ends in the 1980 to 1984 time period.      There were 17 wide receivers in the first round 2010 to 2014 compared to 13 wide receivers in the first round 1980 to 1984.  

The difference in proportions across the time periods is small.  Is it significant?

I crunched the t statistic and found t=0.5 for tight ends and t=0.2 for wide receivers.

The difference is both small and not statistically significant from zero.

Will this result hold over longer time periods?  (If your boss wants you to report a statistically significant difference perhaps consider 2005 to 2014 versus 1975 to 1984.)   I will look at how changes in sample size and changes in time frame can alter results in a future post.

#NFL Draft
#Tight End
#Wide Receiver





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