Thursday, November 13, 2014

Turnout in Colorado by county 2012 versus 2014



President Obama won Colorado by a lot in 2012.  Mark Udall lost a relatively close election in the same state.  

Turnout was much lower in 2014 than in 2012.   I am curious as to whether the decrease in turnout was larger in counties that President Obama took in 2012 than in counties that Mitt Romney took in 2012.


Question:  What was the change in turnout between 2012 and 2014 in Colorado counties taken by Mitt Romney?   What was the change in counties in turnout between 2012 and 2014 for counties taken by President Obama?



Data Source:  I struggled getting this data together.  I originally downloaded from Politico but I then found it more convenient to get official numbers from the Colorado Secretary of State web site.


Colorado Presidential Election Results 2012:


Colorado Senate Results 2014:


Turnout numbers by elections and counties in Colorado:


Here are the 2014 and 2012 turnout number in Colorado in counties won by Romney.


Turnout 2012 Presidential Versus 2014 Senate Race in Colorado in Counties won by Romney
County
Total Votes 2014
Total Votes 2012
Diff 2014-2012
% Diff with 2012 as the base
Weld
82,842
115,866
-33,024
-28.5%
Mesa
52,535
72,947
-20,412
-28.0%
Dolores
942
1,245
-303
-24.3%
Montezuma
9,620
12,318
-2,698
-21.9%
El Paso
227,645
290,175
-62,530
-21.5%
Garfield
19,217
24,408
-5,191
-21.3%
Moffat
4,870
6,168
-1,298
-21.0%
Bent
1,539
1,942
-403
-20.8%
Rio Grande
4,387
5,533
-1,146
-20.7%
Rio Blanco
2,710
3,369
-659
-19.6%
Otero
6,602
8,192
-1,590
-19.4%
Archuleta
5,443
6,734
-1,291
-19.2%
Douglas
136,741
168,084
-31,343
-18.6%
Morgan
8,769
10,777
-2,008
-18.6%
Prowers
3,969
4,863
-894
-18.4%
Montrose
16,525
20,130
-3,605
-17.9%
Grand
6,745
8,187
-1,442
-17.6%
Teller
11,175
13,407
-2,232
-16.6%
Kit Carson
3,095
3,702
-607
-16.4%
Fremont
17,173
20,416
-3,243
-15.9%
Delta
13,423
15,925
-2,502
-15.7%
Logan
7,704
9,124
-1,420
-15.6%
Park
7,982
9,366
-1,384
-14.8%
Lincoln
1,971
2,287
-316
-13.8%
Elbert
12,280
14,178
-1,898
-13.4%
Jackson
735
848
-113
-13.3%
Hinsdale
523
600
-77
-12.8%
Phillips
1,977
2,265
-288
-12.7%
Baca
1,858
2,106
-248
-11.8%
Crowley
1,330
1,502
-172
-11.5%
Washington
2,328
2,591
-263
-10.2%
Sedgwick
1,206
1,338
-132
-9.9%
Cheyenne
1,007
1,093
-86
-7.9%
Mineral
601
650
-49
-7.5%
Custer
2,511
2,715
-204
-7.5%
Kiowa
761
821
-60
-7.3%
Yuma
4,263
4,577
-314
-6.9%


Here are the 2014 and 2012 turnout numbers in counties won by Obama.

Turnout 2012 Presidential Election Versus 2014 Senate Election in Counties won by Obama
County
Total Votes 2014
Total Votes 2012
Diff 2014-2012
% Diff with 2012 as the base
Pitkin
7,359
10,075
-2,716
-27.0%
Adams
130,221
176,230
-46,009
-26.1%
Denver
223,677
301,694
-78,017
-25.9%
Costilla
1,374
1,837
-463
-25.2%
Summit
11,454
15,312
-3,858
-25.2%
Eagle
17,191
22,668
-5,477
-24.2%
Pueblo
57,798
76,194
-18,396
-24.1%
Alamosa
5,096
6,715
-1,619
-24.1%
San Miguel
3,240
4,256
-1,016
-23.9%
Boulder
136,784
179,499
-42,715
-23.8%
Routt
10,361
13,317
-2,956
-22.2%
La Plata
22,769
29,184
-6,415
-22.0%
Arapahoe
223,215
285,516
-62,301
-21.8%
Saguache
2,297
2,932
-635
-21.7%
Gunnison
6,834
8,667
-1,833
-21.1%
Lake
2,406
3,040
-634
-20.9%
Larimer
145,068
180,180
-35,112
-19.5%
Las Animas
5,530
6,862
-1,332
-19.4%
Clear Creek
4,631
5,743
-1,112
-19.4%
Jefferson
254,624
311,052
-56,428
-18.1%
Ouray
2,678
3,202
-524
-16.4%
Broomfield
27,486
32,777
-5,291
-16.1%
Chaffee
8,806
10,462
-1,656
-15.8%
Conejos
3,461
4,101
-640
-15.6%
Gilpin
2,867
3,338
-471
-14.1%
Huerfano
3,193
3,714
-521
-14.0%
San Juan
462
506
-44
-8.7%



Summary Statistics By County:



Summary Statistics on Change in Turnout
In Colorado -- 2012 vs 2014
Percentage Change in Turnout in Counties Won by Mitt Romney in 2012
Percentage Change in Turnout In Counties Won By Barack Obama in 2012
Median
-16.4%
-21.7%
Average
-16.1%
-20.6%
Standard Deviation
-15.9%
4.5%
Number of Counties
37
27


Observations:  


Turnout seems much lower in 2014 counties won by Obama than in counties won by Romney.



Aggregates for Counties won by Romney and
Counties won by Obama
Aggregate
Total Votes 2014
Total Votes 2012
Diff 2014-2012
% Diff with 2012 as the base
Counties won by Romney
685,004
870,449
-185,445
-21.3%
Counties won by Obama
2,005,886
2,569,522
-563,636
-21.9%


Observations:

Difference in change in total turnout in counties won by Romney and counties won by Obama is small when looking at aggregates for the two groups.


Concluding Remarks:



Turnout fell across the board in all counties in Colorado between 2014 and 2012.  Turnout decreases appear larger in counties won by Obama.   But analysis based on aggregates gives a different picture than analysis based on county-level statistics. 


If you liked the current posts you will also like the post on turnout in key senate races in 2014.

http://dailymathproblem.blogspot.com/2014/11/voter-turnout-in-key-2014-senate-races.html

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