Monday, February 2, 2015

Analyzing Republican Control in Blue and Red States





Note:   I have taken a bit of time off from my blog to concentrate on a larger project – a post mortem of the 2014 election.   My memo or report on 2014 will be available in a month or two. 


This post involving the creation of a Republican Control Composite Index is also part of my larger project.

Background:   In the 2012 election, Governor Romney won 24 states (red states) and President Obama won 26 states (blue states.)   I have collected data on the number of Senators that are Republican, the percent of the states House Delegation that is Republican, whether a state has a Republican or Democratic Governor, and the number of houses of the legislature under Republican control.

I used this information to create a Composite Index measuring Republican Control for all states.    The index ranges from 0 to 8 where 0 is total Democratic Control and 8 is total Republican Control.   States with a 4 have an even split.

Each component of the index ranged from 0 to 2.  The Senate component gives 1 point for each Republican Senator.     The House Component is the product of the share of the House Delegation and 2.   The Governor Component is 2 if the governor is a Republican 0 otherwise.   The state legislature component is the number of houses in the state legislature under Republican Control.

The values of the Composite index for red and blue states are presented in the tables below.

Questions:  What are the min 25th percentile, median, 75th  percentile, and max values for the Republican Control Index for red and blue states?

What are the mean and standard deviation for the index?

What do these values suggest about the current political situation in this country?


Statistics: 

The Republican Control Composite Index
Blue States
Red States
Min
0.0
4.7
25th
0.5
6.7
median
3.1
7.5
75th
5.3
8.0
Max
6.5
8.0
Average
3.0
7.2
STD
2.3
1.1



Discussion of statistics:

The Republicans have a dominant position in most red states.

In eight red states the Republican Control Index is a perfect 8.

The Democrats have total Democratic Control in 5 blue states.

The median Republican Control index of 7.5 in red states is only 0.5 points from total Republican domination.

The median Republican Control index in blue states is 3.1, which is 0.9 points below neutral.

Republicans have more political power than Democrats in 9 blue states.   One state New Hampshire the index is at 4, the neutral value.

The standard deviation of the Republican Control index is over twice as large in blue states than red states.

Political Comment:

The Democrats need to shore up their base and win elections in red states rather than becoming Don Quixote in Kentucky and Georgia.   A loss of the Presidency in 2016 (something I view as likely if Hillary is the nominee) would give Republicans virtual total political control in all but a few blue states.




Extent of Republican Control in Red States
1
Kentucky
4.7
2
Montana
5.0
3
West Virginia
5.0
4
Missouri
5.5
5
Alaska
6.0
6
Indiana
6.6
7
Arizona
7.1
8
Nebraska
7.3
9
Texas
7.4
10
Georgia
7.4
11
Mississippi
7.5
12
North Carolina
7.5
13
Tennessee
7.6
14
Louisiana
7.7
15
Alabama
7.7
16
South Carolina
7.7
17
Arkansas
8.0
18
Idaho
8.0
19
Kansas
8.0
20
North Dakota
8.0
21
Oklahoma
8.0
22
South Dakota
8.0
23
Utah
8.0
24
Wyoming
8.0




Extent of Republican Control in Blue States
1
Connecticut
0.0
2
Delaware
0.0
3
Hawaii
0.0
4
Rhode Island
0.0
5
Vermont
0.0
6
Oregon
0.4
7
California
0.5
8
New York
1.6
9
Minnesota
1.8
10
Washington
1.8
11
Massachusetts
2.0
12
Maryland
2.3
13
New jersey
3.0
14
Colorado
3.1
15
Virginia
3.5
16
New Mexico
3.7
17
New Hampshire
4.0
18
Pennsylvania
4.4
19
Maine
5.0
20
Michigan
5.3
21
Iowa
5.5
22
Illinois
5.9
23
Wisconsin
6.3
24
Florida
6.3
25
Nevada
6.5
26
Ohio
6.5


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