Monday, January 22, 2018

Obesity and Diabetes: 2005 versus 2015

Obesity and Diabetes

Questions:   The tables in the data section below describe the relationship between obesity and diabetes for the 50-and-over age group in 2005 and 2015.

Use these tables to answer the following questions.

What percent of people in each BMI category was diabetic in 2005 and in 2015?

To what extend did the population gain weight between 2005 and 2015?

What is the total growth in the number of diabetics and growth for each BMI category between 2005 and 2015?

What part of the growth in the number of diabetics was exclusively due to the increase in the size of the population 50 and over?

What would have been the number of diabetics in 2015 if BMI patterns had remained at their 2005 level?   Assume 2015 diabetic prevalence rates.

DATA SECTION:

Relationship Between Diabetes and BMI 50 & Over in 2005
BMI Category
% BMI Category
Not Diabetes
Diabetes
Total
Missing
5.6%
4,504,761
497,659
5,002,420
<18.5
1.2%
1,037,654
55,267
1,092,921
18.5<BMI<25
30.3%
25,000,000
2,172,738
27,172,738
25<=BMI<30
36.3%
28,300,000
4,282,699
32,582,699
30<=BMI
26.6%
18,000,000
5,852,752
23,852,752
Total
100.0%
76,842,415
12,861,116
89,703,531
Source: Medical Expenditures Panel Survey 2005 (50-and over)


Relationship Between Diabetes and BMI, 50 & Over in 2015
BMI Category
% BMI Category
Not Diabetes
Diabetes
Total
Missing
5.1%
4,465,471
1,377,562
5,843,033
<18.5
1.3%
1,409,249
73,370
1,482,619
18.5<BMI<25
27.8%
28,900,000
2,781,843
31,681,843
25<=BMI<30
35.1%
33,600,000
6,388,753
39,988,753
30<=BMI
30.7%
25,300,000
9,644,751
34,944,751
Total
100.0%
93,674,720
20,266,279
113,940,999
Source:  Medical Expenditures Panel Survey 2015 (50 and over)


Analysis:


What percent of each BMI category was diabetic in 2005 and in 2015?



Percent of Each BMI Category that Is Diabetic
BMI Category
% Diabetic 2005
% Diabetic 2015
Missing
9.9%
23.6%
<18.5
5.1%
4.9%
18.5<BMI<25
8.0%
8.8%
25<=BMI<30
13.1%
16.0%
30<=BMI
24.5%
27.6%
Total
14.3%
17.8%


Discussion:

There was an increase in the estimated prevalence of diabetes for most BMI categories


To what extend did the population gain weight between 2005 and 2015?


BMI Patterns 2005 and 2015
BMI Category
2005
2015
Missing
5.6%
5.1%
<18.5
1.2%
1.3%
18.5<BMI<25
30.3%
27.8%
25<=BMI<30
36.3%
35.1%
30<=BMI
26.6%
30.7%
Total
100.0%
100.0%


Discussion:

There was a 3.1 percentage point increase in the obese population (BMI over 30) between 2005 and 2015.

What is the percentage growth in the number of diabetics and growth for each BMI category between 2005 and 2015?




BMI and Diabetes 2005 versus 2015 for People 50 and Over
BMI Category
Diabetics
 2005
Diabetics
 2015
% Change
Missing
497,659
1,377,562
176.8%
<18.5
55,267
73,370
32.8%
18.5<BMI<25
2,172,738
2,781,843
28.0%
25<=BMI<30
4,282,699
6,388,753
49.2%
30<=BMI
5,852,752
9,644,751
64.8%
Total
12,861,116
20,266,279
57.6%




Discussion:  The number of diabetics grew by 57.6 % over a ten-year period.




Increase in Number of Diabetes Due to Population Growth
BMI Category
Diabetics 2005 Actual
Diabetics if only Size of Population Changes
Percentage Change
Total
12,861,116
16,336,128
27.0%


The population grew by around 27 percent.   Absent any changes in the factors causing diabetes there would have been around 16.3 million diabetics in this age group in 2015.   The actual number is around 20.3 million.

A bit less than half the growth in the number of diabetics in this age group is due to population growth.   (Share due to population growth is 27.0%.  Total percentage change in the number of diabetics is 57.6 %.)


What would have been the number of diabetics in 2015 if BMI patterns had remained at their 2005 level?   Assume 2015 diabetic prevalence rates.



Change in BMI Diue to Change in Obesity Patterns
BMI Category
BMI Catgory 2005
Number in BMI Category Based on 2005 Prevalence & 2015 Population (Millions)
Diabetic Prevalence in 2015
Number of Diabetics (millionbs)
Missing
5.6%
6.4
23.6%
1.5
<18.5
1.2%
1.4
4.9%
0.1
18.5<BMI<25
30.3%
34.5
8.8%
3.0
25<=BMI<30
36.3%
41.4
16.0%
6.6
30<=BMI
26.6%
30.3
27.6%
8.4
Total Diabetics Based on 2005 BMI
19.6
Actual Diabetics 2015
20.3


Discussion:   There were around 0.7 million diabetics in 2015 due to change in BMI patterns.,

The table below shows that less than half of diabetics in 2015 are obese.   The percent of diabetics (50 and over) who are obese went from 45.5% in 2005 to 47.6 percent in 2015.


Share of Diabetics In Each BMI Category
BMI Category
2005
2015
Missing
3.9%
6.8%
<18.5
0.4%
0.4%
18.5<BMI<25
16.9%
13.7%
25<=BMI<30
33.3%
31.5%
30<=BMI
45.5%
47.6%
Total
1
1


Concluding Thoughts:   The growth in the number of diabetics 50 and over outpaced population growth by a lot.   Obese people are more likely to get diabetes. However, most people 50 and over with diabetes are not obese. Moreover, only a small portion of the explosion in diabetes is due to changing BMI patterns.

Why has the number of diabetics over age 50 increased by so much more than the size of the population?  The prevalence of diabetes increases with age.  Part of the increase in the number of diabetics may be due to the aging of the 50-and-over population.



Authors Note:  I am very interested in getting a research grant or a job study issues involving population aging and health.   Please contact me with leads.

Email

Linkedin Page:


Authors Note: if you are interested in this topic you are probably also interested in my work on contingency tables. 



No comments:

Post a Comment