Obesity and Diabetes
Questions: The tables in the data section below describe
the relationship between obesity and diabetes for the 50andover age group in
2005 and 2015.
Use these tables to answer
the following questions.
What percent of people in
each BMI category was diabetic in 2005 and in 2015?
To what extend did the population
gain weight between 2005 and 2015?
What is the total growth in
the number of diabetics and growth for each BMI category between 2005 and 2015?
What part of the growth in
the number of diabetics was exclusively due to the increase in the size of the population
50 and over?
What would have been the
number of diabetics in 2015 if BMI patterns had remained at their 2005 level? Assume 2015 diabetic prevalence rates.
DATA SECTION:
Relationship Between Diabetes and BMI 50 & Over in 2005


BMI Category

% BMI Category

Not Diabetes

Diabetes

Total

Missing

5.6%

4,504,761

497,659

5,002,420

<18.5

1.2%

1,037,654

55,267

1,092,921

18.5<BMI<25

30.3%

25,000,000

2,172,738

27,172,738

25<=BMI<30

36.3%

28,300,000

4,282,699

32,582,699

30<=BMI

26.6%

18,000,000

5,852,752

23,852,752

Total

100.0%

76,842,415

12,861,116

89,703,531

Source: Medical Expenditures
Panel Survey 2005 (50and over)
Relationship Between Diabetes and BMI, 50 & Over in 2015


BMI Category

% BMI Category

Not Diabetes

Diabetes

Total

Missing

5.1%

4,465,471

1,377,562

5,843,033

<18.5

1.3%

1,409,249

73,370

1,482,619

18.5<BMI<25

27.8%

28,900,000

2,781,843

31,681,843

25<=BMI<30

35.1%

33,600,000

6,388,753

39,988,753

30<=BMI

30.7%

25,300,000

9,644,751

34,944,751

Total

100.0%

93,674,720

20,266,279

113,940,999

Source: Medical Expenditures Panel Survey 2015 (50
and over)
Analysis:
What percent of each BMI category was diabetic in 2005
and in 2015?
Percent of Each BMI Category that Is Diabetic


BMI Category

% Diabetic 2005

% Diabetic 2015

Missing

9.9%

23.6%

<18.5

5.1%

4.9%

18.5<BMI<25

8.0%

8.8%

25<=BMI<30

13.1%

16.0%

30<=BMI

24.5%

27.6%

Total

14.3%

17.8%

Discussion:
There was an increase in the
estimated prevalence of diabetes for most BMI categories
To what extend did the population gain weight between 2005
and 2015?
BMI Patterns 2005 and 2015


BMI Category

2005

2015

Missing

5.6%

5.1%

<18.5

1.2%

1.3%

18.5<BMI<25

30.3%

27.8%

25<=BMI<30

36.3%

35.1%

30<=BMI

26.6%

30.7%

Total

100.0%

100.0%

Discussion:
There was a 3.1 percentage
point increase in the obese population (BMI over 30) between 2005 and 2015.
What is the percentage growth in the number of
diabetics and growth for each BMI category between 2005 and 2015?
BMI and Diabetes 2005 versus 2015 for People 50 and Over


BMI Category

Diabetics
2005

Diabetics
2015

% Change

Missing

497,659

1,377,562

176.8%

<18.5

55,267

73,370

32.8%

18.5<BMI<25

2,172,738

2,781,843

28.0%

25<=BMI<30

4,282,699

6,388,753

49.2%

30<=BMI

5,852,752

9,644,751

64.8%

Total

12,861,116

20,266,279

57.6%

Discussion: The number of diabetics grew by 57.6 % over a
tenyear period.
Increase in Number of Diabetes Due to Population Growth


BMI Category

Diabetics 2005 Actual

Diabetics if only Size of Population Changes

Percentage Change

Total

12,861,116

16,336,128

27.0%

The population grew by around
27 percent. Absent any changes in the
factors causing diabetes there would have been around 16.3 million diabetics in
this age group in 2015. The actual
number is around 20.3 million.
A bit less than half the
growth in the number of diabetics in this age group is due to population
growth. (Share due to population growth
is 27.0%. Total percentage change in the
number of diabetics is 57.6 %.)
What would have been the number of diabetics in 2015
if BMI patterns had remained at their 2005 level? Assume 2015 diabetic prevalence rates.
Change in BMI Diue to Change in Obesity Patterns


BMI Category

BMI Catgory 2005

Number in BMI Category Based on 2005 Prevalence & 2015
Population (Millions)

Diabetic Prevalence in 2015

Number of Diabetics (millionbs)

Missing

5.6%

6.4

23.6%

1.5

<18.5

1.2%

1.4

4.9%

0.1

18.5<BMI<25

30.3%

34.5

8.8%

3.0

25<=BMI<30

36.3%

41.4

16.0%

6.6

30<=BMI

26.6%

30.3

27.6%

8.4

Total Diabetics Based on 2005 BMI

19.6


Actual Diabetics 2015

20.3

Discussion: There were around 0.7 million diabetics in
2015 due to change in BMI patterns.,
The table below shows that
less than half of diabetics in 2015 are obese.
The percent of diabetics (50 and over) who are obese went from 45.5% in
2005 to 47.6 percent in 2015.
Share of Diabetics In Each BMI Category


BMI Category

2005

2015

Missing

3.9%

6.8%

<18.5

0.4%

0.4%

18.5<BMI<25

16.9%

13.7%

25<=BMI<30

33.3%

31.5%

30<=BMI

45.5%

47.6%

Total

1

1

Concluding Thoughts:
The growth in the number of diabetics
50 and over outpaced population growth by a lot. Obese people are more likely to get diabetes.
However, most people 50 and over with diabetes are not obese. Moreover, only a
small portion of the explosion in diabetes is due to changing BMI patterns.
Why has the number of
diabetics over age 50 increased by so much more than the size of the
population? The prevalence of diabetes
increases with age. Part of the increase
in the number of diabetics may be due to the aging of the 50andover
population.
Authors Note: I am very interested in getting a research
grant or a job study issues involving population aging and health. Please contact me with leads.
Email
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Authors Note:
if you are interested in this topic you are probably also interested in my work
on contingency tables.
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