## Friday, November 16, 2018

### Projecting 2020 Outcomes from 2018 Results

Lessons from 2018 for 2020

Question:  The data in the table below lists outcomes in nine swing states that resulted in Donald Trump’s 2016 victory.  Each of these states had major statewide elections in 2018.

Use the 2018 election results to come up with an assumption on the Trump victory/defeat margin in 2020.

Defend the assumptions.

Obtain projections of 2020 popular vote and electoral vote outcomes based on the assumptions.

Discuss the ramifications of this projection.

 2016 Swing State Outcomes State Clinton 2016 Trump 2016 Total Diff Trump - Clinton AZ 1,161,167 1,252,401 2,413,568 91,234 FL 4,504,975 4,617,886 9,122,861 112,911 GA 1,877,963 2,089,104 3,967,067 211,141 TX 3,877,868 4,685,047 8,562,915 807,179 MI 2,268,839 2,279,543 4,548,382 10,704 IA 653,669 800,983 1,454,652 147,314 OH 2,394,164 2,841,005 5,235,169 446,841 WI 1,382,536 1,405,284 2,787,820 22,748 PA 2,926,441 2,970,733 5,897,174 44,292 Swing State 21,047,622 22,941,986 43,989,608 1,894,364

Short Answer:   A lot can happen between now and 2020.   However, if the election were held in 2018 we would have had a popular vote landslide for the Democrats coupled with a squeaker in the electoral college.

There is a possibility that 2020 will lead to a popular vote landslide for the Democrat coupled with a narrow electoral vote victory for the Republican.

Analysis:  The chart below has actual Trump 2016 margin and my 2020 projection for the Trump margin.

 2016 vs 2020 Projected Margins State 2016 Trump Margin Projected 2020 Margin AZ 3.78% 1.00% FL 1.24% 0.20% GA 5.32% 1.00% TX 9.43% 3.00% MI 0.24% -2.00% IA 10.13% 4.00% OH 8.54% 4.00% WI 0.82% 0.00% PA 0.75% -4.00% Swing State 4.31% 0.64%

Discussion of projected margins:

A moderate Democratic Senate candidate beat a Republican in AZ.  Hard to see how a liberal nominee takes the state.

Tie goes to the Republican in both GA and FL especially given vote suppression and Republican governors in charge.  Why would Harris do better than Nelson or Gillum?

Beto did well in TX but he lost and the governor’s race reveals state still tilts heavily red.

IA and OH governor’s races both went Republican and Trump 2016 margin was large.

PA and MI are tilting blue again.   WI is a toss up

The only other swing state is NC.  Was not included in this chart because there was no state-wide election.

Likely Changes in the Electoral Map:

Based on these projections if the election were held today the Democrats are likely to retake MI, PA and perhaps WI.   The Republicans would be favored to take the other 6 states.

Gain in votes for Democrats in these nine states:

The next chart has actual and projecedt vote totals for the swing states.

The Democrats would add around 1.6 million votes to their popular vote margin in these nine swing states alone.

 Change in Swing State Vote Totals State Diff Trump - Clinton Diff Trump-Dem 2020 AZ 91,234 24,136 FL 112,911 18,246 GA 211,141 39,671 TX 807,179 256,887 MI 10,704 -90,968 IA 147,314 58,186 OH 446,841 209,407 WI 22,748 0 PA 44,292 -235,887 Swing State 1,894,364 279,678

Other factors influencing the 2020 popular vote total:

Many suburban house races are now competitive in blue states including CA, NJ, NY, and WA.   Turnout will be much larger in blue states because of these competitive house races driving up the Democratic popular vote margin.

Bottom line:   Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million and still lost the electoral college.   The 2020 Democrat could win the popular vote by 6 million or more votes and lose the electoral college.

There have been split electoral college popular vote verdicts in the past but these races were tight.   We have never had a landslide popular vote loser become president through the electoral college.