Monday, April 8, 2019

Views of People Supporting Bernie Sanders


This post looks at contingency table data on what supporters of Bernie Sanders feel about health care proposals and the green new deal.

Question:  Contingency tables describing the views of Bernie Sanders supporters on health care and on the green new deal are presented below.  The first table summarizes the relationship between support for single payer and green new deal.   The second table summarizes the relationship between a proposal to fix the ACA and the green new deal proposal.

Contingency table for single payer and green new deal support for Bernie Sanders supporters


Undecided on Green New Deal
Opposed to Green New Deal
Supports Green New Deal
Supports  Single Payer
6
2
96
104


Contingency Table for fix ACA and green new deal support for Bernie Sanders supporters.


Undecided on Green New Deal
Opposed to Green New Deal
Supports Green New Deal
Total
Undecided on  Fixing the ACA
4
1
35
40
Opposed to Fixing the ACA
1
0
44
45
Supports Fixing the ACA
1
1
17
19
Total
6
2
96
104



Discussion of Contingency Tables


100 percent of Bernie Sanders supporters in the sample support a single payer health plan.

An overwhelming majority 92.3 percent of this sample of Bernie Sanders’ supporters support the Green New Deal.  Only  2 of 104 supporters of Sanders oppose the Green New Deal with 6 of 104 undecided.

Fewer than 20 percent of Sanders’ supporters support fixing the ACA.   The number of Sanders’ supporters undecided or opposed to fixing the ACA  are both more than double the number of Sanders’ supporters in support of fixing the ACA.


Overwhelmingly Sanders’ supporters favor both single payer health plan and the green new deal.  The Pearson chi-square test for independence indicates ACA support and Green New Deal support are probably independent.   We can’t reject this null hypothesis.  

Political Comments:


The 2018 election was about keeping and defending the ACA.   The Democrats won big in  conservative House Districts formerly held by Republicans.

If Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris win the nomination the 2020 election will be about single payer replacing private health insurance.   Many people will prefer their existing health insurance to Medicare for all.   These people will vote Republican.   Trump could get reelected and the House could flip.

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