This
post contains detailed tabulations on the relationship between obesity and
diabetes in both 2005 and 2015. Obese people
are more likely to be diabetic but many nonobese people are diabetic. Population growth and the growth in obesity
explain a relatively small portion of the growth in the number of diabetics. Researchers need to find out what other
factors are contributing to the growth in the number of diabetics.
Obesity and Diabetes
Questions: The tables in the data section below describe
the relationship between obesity and diabetes for the 50andover age group in
2005 and 2015.
Use
these tables to answer the following questions.
What
percent of people in each BMI category was diabetic in 2005 and in 2015?
To
what extend did the population gain weight between 2005 and 2015?
What
is the total growth in the number of diabetics and growth for each BMI category
between 2005 and 2015?
What
part of the growth in the number of diabetics was exclusively due to the
increase in the size of the population 50 and over?
What
would have been the number of diabetics in 2015 if BMI patterns had remained at
their 2005 level? Assume 2015 diabetic prevalence rates.
DATA SECTION:
Relationship Between
Diabetes and BMI 50 & Over in 2005


BMI Category

% BMI Category

Not Diabetes

Diabetes

Total

Missing

5.6%

4,504,761

497,659

5,002,420

<18.5

1.2%

1,037,654

55,267

1,092,921

18.5<BMI<25

30.3%

25,000,000

2,172,738

27,172,738

25<=BMI<30

36.3%

28,300,000

4,282,699

32,582,699

30<=BMI

26.6%

18,000,000

5,852,752

23,852,752

Total

100.0%

76,842,415

12,861,116

89,703,531

Source:
Medical Expenditures Panel Survey 2005 (50and over)
Relationship Between
Diabetes and BMI, 50 & Over in 2015


BMI Category

% BMI Category

Not Diabetes

Diabetes

Total

Missing

5.1%

4,465,471

1,377,562

5,843,033

<18.5

1.3%

1,409,249

73,370

1,482,619

18.5<BMI<25

27.8%

28,900,000

2,781,843

31,681,843

25<=BMI<30

35.1%

33,600,000

6,388,753

39,988,753

30<=BMI

30.7%

25,300,000

9,644,751

34,944,751

Total

100.0%

93,674,720

20,266,279

113,940,999

Source: Medical
Expenditures Panel Survey 2015 (50 and over)
Analysis:
What percent of each BMI category was diabetic in 2005 and in
2015?
Percent of Each BMI
Category that Is Diabetic


BMI Category

% Diabetic 2005

% Diabetic 2015

Missing

9.9%

23.6%

<18.5

5.1%

4.9%

18.5<BMI<25

8.0%

8.8%

25<=BMI<30

13.1%

16.0%

30<=BMI

24.5%

27.6%

Total

14.3%

17.8%

Discussion:
There
was an increase in the estimated prevalence of diabetes for most BMI categories
To what extend did the population gain weight between 2005 and
2015?
BMI Patterns 2005 and
2015


BMI Category

2005

2015

Missing

5.6%

5.1%

<18.5

1.2%

1.3%

18.5<BMI<25

30.3%

27.8%

25<=BMI<30

36.3%

35.1%

30<=BMI

26.6%

30.7%

Total

100.0%

100.0%

Discussion:
There
was a 3.1 percentage point increase in the obese population (BMI over 30)
between 2005 and 2015.
What is the percentage growth in the number of diabetics and
growth for each BMI category between 2005 and 2015?
BMI and Diabetes 2005
versus 2015 for People 50 and Over


BMI Category

Diabetics
2005

Diabetics
2015

% Change

Missing

497,659

1,377,562

176.8%

<18.5

55,267

73,370

32.8%

18.5<BMI<25

2,172,738

2,781,843

28.0%

25<=BMI<30

4,282,699

6,388,753

49.2%

30<=BMI

5,852,752

9,644,751

64.8%

Total

12,861,116

20,266,279

57.6%

Discussion: The number of diabetics grew by 57.6 % over a
tenyear period.
Increase in Number of
Diabetes Due to Population Growth


BMI Category

Diabetics 2005 Actual

Diabetics if only Size
of Population Changes

Percentage Change

Total

12,861,116

16,336,128

27.0%

The
population grew by around 27 percent. Absent any changes in
the factors causing diabetes there would have been around 16.3 million
diabetics in this age group in 2015. The actual number is around
20.3 million.
A bit
less than half the growth in the number of diabetics in this age group is due
to population growth. (Share due to population growth is
27.0%. Total percentage change in the number of diabetics is 57.6
%.)
What would have been the number of diabetics in 2015 if BMI
patterns had remained at their 2005 level? Assume 2015
diabetic prevalence rates.
Change in BMI Diue to
Change in Obesity Patterns


BMI Category

BMI Catgory 2005

Number in BMI Category
Based on 2005 Prevalence & 2015 Population (Millions)

Diabetic Prevalence in
2015

Number of Diabetics
(millionbs)

Missing

5.6%

6.4

23.6%

1.5

<18.5

1.2%

1.4

4.9%

0.1

18.5<BMI<25

30.3%

34.5

8.8%

3.0

25<=BMI<30

36.3%

41.4

16.0%

6.6

30<=BMI

26.6%

30.3

27.6%

8.4

Total Diabetics Based on
2005 BMI

19.6


Actual Diabetics 2015

20.3

Discussion: There were around 0.7 million diabetics in 2015
due to change in BMI patterns.,
The table
below shows that less than half of diabetics in 2015 are
obese. The percent of diabetics (50 and over) who are obese
went from 45.5% in 2005 to 47.6 percent in 2015.
Share of Diabetics In
Each BMI Category


BMI Category

2005

2015

Missing

3.9%

6.8%

<18.5

0.4%

0.4%

18.5<BMI<25

16.9%

13.7%

25<=BMI<30

33.3%

31.5%

30<=BMI

45.5%

47.6%

Total

1

1

Concluding Thoughts: The growth in the number of
diabetics 50 and over outpaced population growth by a
lot. Obese people are more likely to get diabetes. However,
most people 50 and over with diabetes are not obese. Moreover, only a small
portion of the explosion in diabetes is due to changing BMI patterns.
Why
has the number of diabetics over age 50 increased by so much more than the size
of the population? The prevalence of diabetes increases with
age. Part of the increase in the number of diabetics may be due to
the aging of the 50andover population.
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