Sunday, May 12, 2019

Views on Health Care and Green New Deal for Biden Supporters



This post examines contingency tables used to analyze relationship between views on health care and views on the Green New Deal for 36 supporters of Joe Biden.

Question One:   The contingency table below has information on how Joe Biden supporters view the proposal for single payer health plan and the green new deal.  


Relationship Between Single Payer Support and Green Deal Support
 for Joe Biden Supporters
Undecided On Green New Deal
Opposed to Green New Deal
Supports Green New Deal
Total Green Deal
Undecided on Single Payer
2
1
0
3
Opposed to Single Payer
2
15
1
18
Supports  Single Payer
2
2
11
15
Total Single Payer
6
18
12
36
Pearson’s Chi  Square
25.5
p-value Pearson’s Chi Square
0



The contingency table summarizing feelings of Biden supporters on fixing the ACA and the green new deal is presented below.  




Relationship Between Support for Fixing ACA and
Support for Green New Deal
Undecided on Green New Deal
Opposed to Green New Deal
Supports Green New Deal
Total
Undecided on ACA Reform
4
6
6
16
Opposes ACA Reform
0
6
1
7
Supports ACA Reform
2
6
5
13
Total
6
18
12
36
Pearson Chi Square
5.1
p-value
0.275



The Pearson Chi-Square statistic for the independence of the two policy proposals are presented for both contingency tables.

Discuss what the first contingency table tells us about how Joe Biden supporters feel about single pay health plan proposals and the green new deal.  What is the apparent relationship between feelings about these two policy proposals for Biden supporters?  In particular, are feelings about single payer independent of feeling about the green new deal?

Discuss what the second contingency table tells us about how Biden supporters feel about ACA reform and the green new deal.  Again discuss the relationship between feelings about the two policy proposals.  Are feelings about ACA reform and the green new deal independent?

Some General Observations About the Contingency Tables:

Contingency Table for Single Payer & Green New Deal

A majority (24/36) of Biden supporters oppose or are undecided about the green new deal.  

A majority (21/360 of Biden supporters oppose or are undecided about single payer.


Biden supporters who support the green new deal overwhelmingly also support single payer.  The conditional probability that a Biden person who wants the green deal also wants single payer P(single payer/green deal) is 11/12.

Contingency Table for ACA reform and Green New Deal

A high proportion of Biden supporters are actually undecided whether or not to reform the ACA, the signature program of the Obama/Biden administration.

The supporters of the green new deal are not united in their feeling about ACA reform.

The supporters of ACA reform appear to have mixed views on the green new deal.

The Pearson Chi-Square Test:

The Chi-Square test compares the observed number of observations in each cell to the expected number of observations in each cell under the assumption that the policy responses are independent.  The actual number of people in each cell would be quite close to the expected  number of people in each cell If people decided whether they supported Green New Deal with a coin toss and the single payer by another coin toss.   Under these circumstances we would conclude the policy responses are independent.   (At the very least we would not reject the idea of independence.)

 When the Chi-Square statistic is large we reject the hypothesis that the policy responses are independent.

The Chi-Square test indicates that we should reject the idea support for single payer and support for Green new deal are independent.   We cannot reject the hypothesis of independence for support of ACA reform and Green New Deal.


The views of Biden supporters differ sharply from the views of Bernie supporters.   Go here to understand the contrast.

http://www.dailymathproblem.com/2019/04/views-of-people-supporting-bernie.html
































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