This
post examines contingency tables used to analyze relationship between views on health
care and views on the Green New Deal for 36 supporters of Joe Biden.
Question
One: The contingency
table below has information on how Joe Biden supporters view the proposal for
single payer health plan and the green new deal.
Relationship Between
Single Payer Support and Green Deal Support
for Joe Biden Supporters


Undecided On Green New
Deal

Opposed to Green New
Deal

Supports Green New Deal

Total Green Deal


Undecided on Single
Payer

2

1

0

3

Opposed to Single Payer

2

15

1

18

Supports Single Payer

2

2

11

15

Total Single Payer

6

18

12

36

Pearson’s Chi Square

25.5


pvalue Pearson’s Chi
Square

0

The contingency table summarizing feelings of
Biden supporters on fixing the ACA and the green new deal is presented
below.
Relationship
Between Support for Fixing ACA and
Support
for Green New Deal


Undecided
on Green New Deal

Opposed
to Green New Deal

Supports
Green New Deal

Total


Undecided
on ACA Reform

4

6

6

16

Opposes
ACA Reform

0

6

1

7

Supports
ACA Reform

2

6

5

13

Total

6

18

12

36

Pearson
Chi Square

5.1


pvalue

0.275

The Pearson ChiSquare statistic for the
independence of the two policy proposals are presented for both contingency
tables.
Discuss what the first contingency table tells
us about how Joe Biden supporters feel about single pay health plan proposals
and the green new deal. What is the apparent
relationship between feelings about these two policy proposals for Biden
supporters? In particular, are feelings about
single payer independent of feeling about the green new deal?
Discuss what the second contingency table tells
us about how Biden supporters feel about ACA reform and the green new deal. Again discuss the relationship between
feelings about the two policy proposals.
Are feelings about ACA reform and the green new deal independent?
Some
General Observations About the Contingency Tables:
Contingency
Table for Single Payer & Green New Deal
A majority (24/36) of Biden supporters oppose or
are undecided about the green new deal.
A majority (21/360 of Biden supporters oppose
or are undecided about single payer.
Biden supporters who support the green new
deal overwhelmingly also support single payer.
The conditional probability that a Biden person who wants the green deal
also wants single payer P(single payer/green deal) is 11/12.
Contingency
Table for ACA reform and Green New Deal
A high proportion of Biden supporters are
actually undecided whether or not to reform the ACA, the signature program of
the Obama/Biden administration.
The supporters of the green new deal are not
united in their feeling about ACA reform.
The supporters of ACA reform appear to have
mixed views on the green new deal.
The
Pearson ChiSquare Test:
The ChiSquare test compares the observed
number of observations in each cell to the expected number of observations in
each cell under the assumption that the policy responses are independent. The actual number of people in each cell would
be quite close to the expected number of
people in each cell If people decided whether they supported Green New Deal
with a coin toss and the single payer by another coin toss. Under these circumstances we would conclude
the policy responses are independent.
(At the very least we would not reject the idea of independence.)
When
the ChiSquare statistic is large we reject the hypothesis that the policy
responses are independent.
The ChiSquare test indicates that we should
reject the idea support for single payer and support for Green new deal are independent. We cannot reject the hypothesis of independence
for support of ACA reform and Green New Deal.
The views of Biden supporters differ sharply from the views of Bernie supporters. Go here to understand the contrast.
http://www.dailymathproblem.com/2019/04/viewsofpeoplesupportingbernie.html
The views of Biden supporters differ sharply from the views of Bernie supporters. Go here to understand the contrast.
http://www.dailymathproblem.com/2019/04/viewsofpeoplesupportingbernie.html
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